Entry-level pay to increase by an average of 4% but vacancies to decrease by 1.2%, according to poll of blue chip employers
The average starting salary for a graduate is predicted to increase by 4% to £26,000 this year, according to a poll of more than 200 blue chip employers.
The Association of Graduate Recruiters says this year's rise is the biggest since the credit crunch. Starting salaries have remained static at £25,000 since 2009, according to the AGR.
The AGR's blue chip average for this year – based on a poll of firms including consultants Accenture, retailer Marks & Spencer and bank UBS – is higher than the figure for all graduates. A survey by a government agency finds the average salary for all first-time graduates working full-time ranges from £17,720 to £23,335.
The AGR survey also shows that the number of graduate vacancies is predicted to drop by 1.2% this year.
Carl Gilleard, chief executive of the AGR, said: "The predicted increase to graduate salaries is significant and sizeable, particularly given the context of starting salaries remaining stagnant for the past three years.
"The findings show that the market is predicted to remain relatively stable."
IT and telecoms companies are expecting the biggest increase in graduate vacancies in the 2012 recruitment season with a predicted rise of 32.5%.
Construction firms and consultancies are also expecting big increases in vacancy levels this year (29.4%) as is the public sector (27.8%). An employer from the public sector told AGR that graduate vacancies had increased owing to recruitment freezes throughout the rest of the organisation.
The employer said: "It's about it being the only route in ... because we are going through cost savings you won't find vacancies in mainstream roles but we are losing people through natural wastage and restructuring; we can use the graduates to be the talent pipeline coming in."
Investment banks and fund managers are predicting the biggest decrease in vacancies, with a 41.7% reduction. Investment banks offered the highest average starting salary, £38,250, in the 2010-11 recruiting season. The AGR survey was carried out in November 2011.
The survey also explored employers' attitudes to two-year degrees, which some universities have introduced as an alternative to the traditional three-year programme.
Half of recruiters had not heard of the shorter degrees, the poll finds. The ones that had were concerned students would struggle to develop workplace skills if their academic workload is heavier.
Gilleard said: "Employers do value graduates that have work experience, and those students that have undertaken a year in industry as part of a four-year degree. Consequently, there are genuine concerns surrounding students undertaking two-year degrees as they do not have as much time to gain workplace experience."