University applicant numbers are down 8.7% – but there is little evidence that raising fees has deterred disadvantaged students
There was disturbing news yesterday for those who have argued that the price of a university degree is increasingly affecting choice. As widely predicted, Ucas figures yesterday showed the number of applicants had dropped by 8.7%, the steepest fall in decades. But that powerful finding masked a number of other issues. There was, for example, a sharper drop in applications from the richest students than from the poorest. Tripling the fees appeared to have little deterrent effect in a market where demand continues to outstrip supply.
There are other important factors at work here. One is the demographic drop in the number of 18-year-olds. Another was the rush to get into university last year when fees were lower, with fewer taking gap years. But on the central charge that the price rises would deter the disadvantaged student from applying, these figures provided scant factual support. On the contrary, they appeared to show that on England's one-way journey – so far – towards the fees that are being charged by America's top universities, the market was taking the rises in its stride. One could almost hear a collective sigh of relief from the Liberal Democrats, on whose political gravestone the words tuition fees will always be etched.
The emphasis about the Ucas figures must be on the word "appear". First, it is not clear what is happening to affluent students. They could be heading elsewhere in the global market of higher education. Nor is it clear why fewer men are applying than women. It is only when we compare how the decision to charge £9,000 tuition fees has changed the popularity of different subjects, and the expectation of starting salaries and life earnings, that the true picture will emerge. It is likely to be a mixed one. Moreover, the market of 18-year-olds is a captive one. There is a world of difference between saying that a good degree remains a smart investment, and acknowledging that soaring levels of youth unemployment are pushing more students into the system as a way of postponing the inevitable. And demand will continue to outstrip supply if the government continues to cut the places it funds, and the teaching grants, at English universities. There is more than a hint here of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The Ucas figures are clear about one group of students. The new cost of a degree clearly deters mature students, returning to do a second degree, and therefore ineligible for a student loan. There are big falls here – 2,400 fewer 30-39 year olds applying for a place this year. The high demand for university places should not be taken as a vindication of the fee rises. We cannot on the one hand argue that a knowledge-based economy requires constant re-education, and take satisfaction in the fact that our university system fails to provide it.