High court to rule on eviction of London camp amid debate over next move and dwindling enthusiasm for global movement
During a heady few weeks late last year, camps were springing up around the UK, and Occupy was the country's fastest-growing political movement. A few months on – beset by obstacles including court cases, an influx of the long-term homeless and vulnerable and the sheer cold – the phenomenon, at least in its tent-based form, seems to be almost over.
On Monday, London protesters will hear whether their high court application to appeal against the decision to evict them has been successful – but many other camps have already melted away.
At the autumn peak, about two dozen Occupy camps existed, from Edinburgh to Plymouth, Norwich to Belfast. A handful lasted into winter, but even those are now packing up. The few activists remaining on Exeter's Cathedral Green left last week.
The camp on Bristol's College Green, at one stage numbering 60 tents, was cleared after the final, solitary protester gave in. Occupy Edinburgh finally finished last week, while Sheffield must quit on Monday after a court order.
That leaves just Nottingham, where campers are discussing an "exit plan"; Norwich, where campers have agreed to leave their city-centre site; and the slightly incongruous-sounding Occupy Thanet, which set up camp outside the Turner Contemporary gallery in Margate, Kent, just over a fortnight ago.
Then there is London, where the flagship outpost – the sizeable if slightly diminished encampment in the lee of St Paul's Cathedral – also faces a possible visit by bailiffs and police from Tuesday. Once that is cleared, all that will remain is a lower-profile offshoot on Finsbury Square, just north-east of St Paul's, and a squatted former court building.
It is a similar story worldwide.
The phenomenon began last year in the more forgiving climate of a Madrid May, when thousands packed into the city's Puerta del Sol square to express anger at the economic situation, expensive housing and a sense of political detachment.
Inspired by the people-led movements of the Arab spring, the indignados, or outraged, decided they should gather to plan a better future. While dozens of similar camps emerged around Spain, the movement seemingly fizzled out that summer.
It reignited in September when Occupy Wall Street – a major inspiration for London – took over New York's Zuccotti Park with its soon-ubiquitous "We are the 99%" slogan. Police broke up that camp two months later, and the remaining US outposts are reducing in number all the time. Over the past week or so police have moved into Miami, Austin and Washington, while Occupy Pittsburgh disbanded voluntarily after an eviction order.
For the UK movement the end of St Paul's, which seems inevitable despite Monday's hearing, will be a pivotal moment, and one that is under intense debate.
Some protesters want to see the campers leave voluntarily before the bailiffs arrive, possibly in exchange for a deal in which church authorities allow a symbolic single tent to remain. Others, however, are set to remain – not least those with nowhere else to go.
St Paul's, like several long-running camps, has proved a magnet to already homeless or otherwise vulnerable people, a number of whom have moved in. Others have similar motivations for staying, Kris, a long-term resident who preferred not to give his full name, said.
He added: "We have lots of people here who lost their home because a bank mis-sold them a mortgage. And we have others who began camping here and decided to give up their flat and sold their things on eBay. They're not homeless – this is their home. But it does mean they have a very real reason to not want to leave."
The camp has asked the Corporation of London, which owns the bulk of the relevant land and is leading eviction efforts, to guarantee it will act peacefully and during daylight to avoid distressing residents who "are vulnerable in some way". The corporation has refused to do this.
There is similarly vigorous discussion about what the movement should do next – and even whether the end of St Paul's might be the best thing. "I'm in two minds about this," said Kris. "I don't see there is a need to have a 'lead' camp like St Paul's when an organisation like this has no leaders.
"But to an extent it's an outreach, an embassy, to the public and the banks. Bankers and businesspeople do come and speak to us, which is amazing – it's partly because we're here, and they might not go somewhere more distant."
Another activist involved since the beginning, Naomi Colvin, is more definite, saying: "Any campaign ebbs and flows. I'm not all that concerned about keeping a certain space intact, or even the O-word at all.
"From a campaigning point of view, having a long-term occupation is not ideal. We're a campaign rather than specifically an occupation. If, say, you had a time-limited protest, you'd get more of a mixture of people."
There is unity in believing Occupy has helped shape a political climate in which public opinion is now sufficiently aghast at corporate excess that both the chief executive of RBS, Stephen Hester, and bosses at Network Rail gave up bonuses.
Measuring influence is a difficult business, but two strands can be traced to St Paul's. As well as the many financial services workers – many surprisingly sympathetic – who have stopped by, Occupy has had more formal links, including talks with Hector Sants, the head of the Financial Services Authority.
Then there is the role of the church. The cathedral's new neighbours prompted a vigorous internal debate about its relationship with wealth and inequality, eventually bringing expressions of sympathy from the likes of the bishop of London, Richard Chartres, and even Rowan Williams, the archbishop of Canterbury.
"We've achieved a lot," Kris said. "I don't think the prime minister and other party heads would have been putting the same pressure on Hester if it wasn't for Occupy."
It has been the right campaign at the right time, said Colvin. "I think we've been a catalyst in part, but also a direct policy lever. It's like surfing a wave – you have to have a certain amount of skill, but you need the wave to be there in the first place."