Russia's presidential election next Sunday may return Putin to the Kremlin. But it is not business as usual
While this year promises hotly contested battles for the presidencies of France and the US, only in Russia does the outcome seem a foregone conclusion. But whereas we might be reasonably sure of the result, we should not assume that there is little at stake.
For western eyes, the neat swap of titles from prime minister to president by Vladimir Putin – suitably circumventing Russia's rule that prevents a president from serving more than two terms consecutively – may appear to suggest business as usual in the closed world of Kremlin politics. But that was not the view taken by many Russians, insulted by the self-asserting proclamation of immovable presidential power stretching over the next decade and more. The poor, middle class and wealthy filled the streets, incensed by allegations of vote rigging and dirty tricks in the Duma elections in December. This movement, supported even by Russian elites, has exploded the long-held myth that the people want to stick with Putin just for the sake of stability.
Putin responded to the demonstrators with mockery and chauvinism, saying he mistook the white ribbon they wore for the condoms of safe sex campaigners. But the authorities also responded – quietly – with reform, permitting the registration of new political parties for future Duma elections, and election rather than appointment of regional governors. These steps are capable of changing much in Russia, a catalyst, perhaps unintended, for a more fundamental transformation.
They give hope that the seeds of modernity can be planted across the Russian Federation with the brightest and best coming forward as candidates for public office. Opposition figures capable of challenging existing power structures will grow – but the opposition will have to consolidate into two or three new parties, with the capacity and strength to challenge the status quo, avoiding the Kremlin trap of divide and rule among myriad rivals.
But if that is the vision for the future, what prospects for the presidential elections next week? I hope we will see a large turnout, with my fellow citizens taking a long hard look at the alternative four "candidates", even if many would have preferred different names, who were not allowed to be there. The last time Putin stood for president he won resoundingly in the first round. If he is forced into a run-off this time, it would be an altogether different situation.
A second round would confirm that the change we all seek is on its way: an evolutionary and not a revolutionary approach can be the way forward. We do not want the bloodshed on our streets seen elsewhere – but we do want things to be different. It must be the role of our generation to change the paradigm in Russia without a civil war.
Abuse of power in Russian politics has been allowed to flourish too long. We need to modernise our economy, build a genuine civil society, end legal nihilism and stamp out corruption. We need to do this to build a better life for our children and our children's children, and for the country we love to prosper and to be engaged usefully in a changed and changing world.
We have only to reflect on the Arab spring to recognise the transformation taking place in the compact between the rulers and the ruled. While there are certainly many differences between those countries and Russia, there are some fundamental similarities.
From Cairo to Damascus, from Moscow to Magadan, people want to be treated with dignity and respect – and Russia is no exception!
The Arab spring has shown us that nobody can hold back the power of modern technology to inform and to mobilise. Technology has empowered the people.
And Russia's educated and growing middle classes should comprise a majority in just 10 years. They will continue to demand a real seat at the table in a system of democracy and pluralism, and they will not take no for an answer.
Nobody expects this to happen overnight – but next Sunday's vote holds out the chance to end the would-be president's monopoly of power. We should not be afraid. By forcing a second round we will push our country down the path of positive change. Presidential power that previously answered to no one would have to start listening to the people it serves. The state that until now took the monopolistic presidential power for granted would be more wary of its hold and start moderating its behaviour. The politicians who gathered the opposition votes could become a force to be reckoned with, a voice for articulating the thoughts and views that have been ignored before. The establishment would have to start negotiating with the opposition and an evolutionary transition could meaningfully begin.
I would also welcome a change of position from western countries. They should stop dancing to the whistle of the gas pipe. They need to speak loud and clear with one voice about real democratic reforms, recognising that the only way to secure our mutual interests in the long term is for governments to stop hiding behind the stability myth, legitimising a regime that is deceiving its own people – the people who are starting to wake up.
And so I ask you to watch with interest the results of this year's election. In France and the US, the presidential vote is about choosing between differing political visions and outcomes. In my country the electoral calculus is a little simpler: choose Putin in the first round or in the second round. But do not be fooled! "President" Putin's return to the Kremlin, after either manipulating the first round or being forced into a second round, without doubt puts the world on notice that real political change in Russia is unavoidable. It will be welcomed.
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