The IPL-bound Eoin Morgan looks likely to be too short of first-class playing time to force his way back into England's Test team this summer
England omitted Eoin Morgan from their tour of Sri Lanka with the usual encouraging messages that they see this as an interruption, rather than a termination, of his Test career. But read between the lines, and assess the practicalities, and it is hard to see any quick route back to Test cricket for the Irish left‑hander.
"He has got some work to do on his Test game," said Andy Flower, the England team director, after the announcement that Morgan has been replaced by Samit Patel in a 16-man squad which includes four spinners following the unexpected recall of Kent's James Tredwell.
That is obvious, after a wretched two months in the United Arab Emirates during which Morgan managed 176 runs from 13 innings against Pakistan's spin-dominated attack, and only 82 from six at an average of little more than 13 in the Tests – leaving him with an average of only a fraction over 30 from his 16 Test appearances. But it is harder to see exactly when Morgan is going to be able to tinker with his technique for first-class cricket – which was clearly shot to pieces as his ugly crouching and bouncing became increasingly exaggerated in the UAE – and then to master a new method.
At the age of 25, he has still only played 69 first-class matches, including those 16 Tests. His last County Championship appearance for Middlesex was in July 2010 and it will be late May at least before he is able to play in another four-day match because his next commitments will be in Bengaluru with the Royal Challengers in the Indian Premier League.
"That's going to be quite difficult for him considering his next cricket is going to be IPL cricket," Flower added. "When he comes back he'll have limited exposure to opportunities to get four-day cricket so he has got to go away and give some serious thought to his method in Test cricket. I still think he has a very exciting future in Test cricket, he's only 25 years old and he's a very talented player, a very confident player and a very dangerous player.If he can get his game in order so that the next time he gets a game in Test cricket he can grab it with both hands then he will fulfil his wishes for his cricket career and England will be a better side for it."
Morgan's IPL commitments mean that he will definitely miss the first five of Middlesex's 16 County Championship matches this summer following their promotion to the First Division. If the Challengers make the IPL play-offs, he would be unavailable for a sixth and very possibly a seventh. Assuming he does not seek to back out of his IPL contract – and there is no hint of that at this stage, even though he does have a 12-month central contract from England covering all forms of the game – he would therefore be out of contention for the first of England's two home Test series next summer, against West Indies in May and June.
His chances of forcing his way into the series against South Africa in the second half of the summer would also seem minimal, given the scarcity of first-class county cricket in June and July, when the domestic Twenty20 competition takes centre stage. So Ravi Bopara, who is expected to be given the first crack at Morgan's No6 position in Sri Lanka despite the inclusion of Patel, could be rewarded for the patience he was forced to show during a frustrating UAE tour by having a long run at finally re-establishing himself in the England side. Geoff Miller, the national selector, confirmed in a BBC Radio 5 Live interview that Bopara is the next in line. "But we'll wait and see what the conditions are like. We've also got Samit Patel in the squad, who is a quality middle-order batsman and also bowls left-arm spin."
Miller added that Tredwell, a 30-year-old off-spinner whose single Test appearance came in Bangladesh two years ago, had been selected as cover for Graeme Swann, with Patel providing back-up to Monty Panesar. Tredwell has actually taken Chris Tremlett's position in the 16-man squad that was originally announced for the Tests against Pakistan, although Tim Bresnan is effectively replacing Graham Onions in a third change after he was forced home during the warm-up games in the UAE following a reaction to an elbow problem.
Bresnan's return strengthens the options in the lower middle-order, creating the possibility of promoting Matt Prior to Morgan's position at six, with Bresnan seven, Swann and Stuart Broad at eight and nine, and Panesar and Jimmy Anderson bringing up the rear, allowing England to play five specialist bowlers. However all precedent would suggest they are more likely to stick with six specialist batsmen.
The first Test, in Galle, begins on 26 March, but seven players will head for Sri Lanka early with the batting coach Graham Gooch, well ahead of the pair of three-day warm-up matches in Colombo.
England squad: Strauss (capt, Middlesex), Anderson (Lancashire), Bell (Warwickshire), Bopara (Essex), Bresnan (Yorkshire), Broad (Nottinghamshire), Cook (Essex), Finn (Middlesex), Panesar (Sussex), Patel (Nottinghamshire), Pietersen (Surrey), Prior (Sussex), Swann (Nottinghamshire), Tredwell (Kent), Trott (Warwickshire).
15 March: v Presidents XI, Colombo. 20 March: v Sri Lanka Development XI, Colombo. 26 March: First Test, Galle. 3 April: Second Test, Colombo.